https://ospreyn.com Independent analysis of the South African economy and its regulators. Every figure traces to a cited public source, and anything unchecked is flagged in the verification register. en-ZA Sat, 07 Nov 2026 19:51:00 GMT https://ospreyn.com/briefs#beyond-the-numbers-decoding-south-africa%E2%80%99s-economic-rebasing-and-debt-reality https://ospreyn.com/briefs#beyond-the-numbers-decoding-south-africa%E2%80%99s-economic-rebasing-and-debt-reality Sat, 07 Nov 2026 08:00:00 GMT Fiscal Policy and GDP Rebasing South Africa’s economic landscape has received a welcome injection of optimism following a pivotal data update from the National Treasury. By revising the country's debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio sharply lower, driven by a routine structural update showing the economy was actually 5.3% larger than previously measured, policymakers have been handed a stronger macro-economic baseline. However, beneath the surface of these improved metrics lies a more nuanced story about structural growth, fiscal discipline, and what these changes truly mean for the average South African. https://ospreyn.com/briefs#defence-on-a-shoestring-why-treasury%E2%80%99s-mid-term-budget-leaves-the-sandf-short https://ospreyn.com/briefs#defence-on-a-shoestring-why-treasury%E2%80%99s-mid-term-budget-leaves-the-sandf-short Fri, 30 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMT South African defence funding in the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), set against Treasury’s priorities for state-owned entities The MTBPS gives the defence department a bigger headline budget, but most of the increase is not new Treasury money. The salary bill is already heading for an overspend, the air force is flying far below target, and soldiers lack basic equipment. Meanwhile, the state is backing struggling state companies with billions in guarantees. The author argues that defence is being asked to do more with less, and that Parliament should demand clarity on what the money does and does not buy. https://ospreyn.com/briefs#after-the-fatf-grey-list https://ospreyn.com/briefs#after-the-fatf-grey-list Thu, 29 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMT Financial Regulation & AML/CFT The Financial Action Task Force removed South Africa from its grey list on 24 October 2025, about 32 months after it was listed. This brief sets out what the exit changes, what it does not, and why the next FATF evaluation, which begins in 2026, matters more than the delisting itself.